Household projections, Scotland

THE number of households in Scotland is projected to increase by 120,000 (five per cent) over the next ten years (based on 2018 figures), from 2.48 million in 2018 to 2.60 million in 2028.

The estimate is from figures released by the National Records for Scotland, which adds that, by 2043, the number of households is projected to increase by ten per cent to 2.71 million.

Says NRS: “This projection equates to an average of 12,000 additional households per year up to 2028. The rate of increase is lower in the later years of the projection period, with an average of 7,800 additional households per year projected between 2028 and 2043.”

It adds: “Scotland’s population is ageing. The number of people aged 65 and over is increasing much faster than the number of children and younger adults. This has an impact on household structure as children tend to live in larger households and older people in smaller ones.

“Much of the projected growth in households between 2018 and 2028 will come from one- person and two-adult households without dependent children. The numbers of these households are projected to increase by eight per cent (to 965,100 households) and seven per cent (to 830,600 households), respectively.

“A two per cent increase between 2018 and 2028 is projected in the number of households comprising one adult with children, increasing to 157,900 households. In contrast, the numbers of households of two adults with children or three or more adults only are projected to fall slightly, by one per cent (to 441,100 households) and three per cent (to 203,000 households) respectively.”

The release continues: “The gap between the average life expectancy of men and women in Scotland is decreasing and so the number of older men is projected to increase more rapidly than the number of older women. Compared with 2018, the number of men aged 65 and over living alone is projected to increase by 23 per cent (to 139,500) in 2028.

“Over the same period, the number of women aged 65 and over living alone is projected to increase by 16 per cent (to 245,900). The substantial projected increase in the number of older households, and particularly the increase in older people living alone, has implications for services and policies aimed at supporting older people.

“As a result of more people living alone or in smaller households, the average household size is projected to decrease from 2.15 people in 2018 to 2.12 people in 2028, and then to 2.00 people in 2043.”

The release goes on: “Growth in the number of households is fastest where the household reference person (HRP) is older: the number of households where the HRP is someone aged 65 or over is projected to increase by 20 per cent between 2018 and 2028 (to 824,300 households).

“The increase is particularly large in the older age groups: the numbers of households with an HRP aged 75 to 84 is projected to increase by 30 per cent (to 341,900 households), while for households with an HRP aged 85 or over a 22 per cent increase (to 116,800 households) is projected.

“The number of households where the HRP is someone aged under 65 is projected to decrease marginally (by 0.8 per cent) from 1.79 million in 2018 to 1.77 million in 2028.

“Between 2018 and 2028, increases in the number of households are projected in 28 of Scotland’s 32 council areas, with only Argyll and Bute, Inverclyde, Na-h Eileanan Siar and North Ayrshire projected to have decreases.

“The fastest-growing areas are in the east of the country, with Midlothian projected to have the biggest (16 per cent) percentage increase.

“The number of households in Cairngorms National Park (CNP) is projected to rise from 8,700 in 2018 to 9,400 in 2028, an increase of eight per cent. The number of households in Loch Lomond and the Trossachs National Park (LLTNP) is also projected to grow by two per cent, from 6,700 to 6,800.

“The number of households is projected to increase in each of the four Strategic Development Plan areas in Scotland from 2018 to 2028, ranging from an increase of three per cent in the TAYplan area to an increase of eight per cent in the SESplan area.”

Source: National Records of Scotland, published September 29 2020, here.

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