Population rise, followed by fall, projected for Scotland

SCOTLAND’S population is estimated to peak in six years’ time, before falling back thereafter.

According to analysis released by the National Records of Scotland, the country’s population will rise to a high of 5.48 million in 2028 before falling to 5.39 million by 2045. Currently, 5.47 million people live in Scotland.

Says the NRS, here: “Should the past trends in births, deaths and migration seen in Scotland continue, the analysis projects that, by 2045, there will be 200,000 fewer children (a fall of 22 per cent) and 300,000 more people over 65 (an increase of 30 per cent).

“The new report has been compiled by National Records of Scotland (NRS), using data from the Office for National Statistics. It shows that, if these projections were realised, Scotland’s population would fall by 1.5 per cent over the next 25 years, whilst the UK population would grow by 5.8 per cent. These latest projections for Scotland and the UK are both lower than previous projections.

“These are the first projections for a number of years to show Scotland’s population starting to fall in the next decade. The previous (2018-based) projections suggested that population growth could stall and then begin to fall after around 25 years.”

Picture credit: Place Design Scotland

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