Warmer, wetter winters predicted for Scotland

SCOTLAND is predicted to experience warmer, wetter winters, with more intense rainfall events, according to a climate projections summary published by the organisation, Adaptation Scotland (‘supporting climate change resilience’).

Among the findings in the summary:

  • Scotland’s ten warmest years on record have all occurred since 1997. The average temperature in the last decade (2010-2019) was around 0.7°C warmer than the 1961-1990 average.
  • There has been an increase in rainfall over Scotland in the past few decades, with an increasing proportion coming from heavy rainfall events. The average year in the last decade (2010-2019) was nine per cent wetter than the 1961-1990 average.
  • Average sea level around the UK has risen by approximately 1.4 mm/year since the start of the 20th century.

Says Adaptation Scotland: “The summary provides an overview for Scotland of the most up-to-date UK Met Office Climate Projections and has been produced in partnership with the Met Office, Scottish Government, SEPA [Scottish Environment Protection Agency], Nature Scot, Historic Environment Scotland, Our Dynamic Coast and ClimateXChange.”

Among the predictions:

  • By 2080 under a ‘low global emissions scenario’, average winters are projected to be around five per cent wetter and 1.1°C warmer. Under a ‘high global emissions scenario’, average winters are projected to be around 19 per cent wetter and 2.7°C warmer.
  • Scotland will experience hotter, drier summers, with greater extremes. By 2080 under a ‘low global emissions scenario’, average summers are projected to be around 1.1°C warmer and 11 per cent drier. Under a ‘high global emissions scenario’ average summers are projected to be around 3°C warmer and 18 per cent drier.
  • Sea levels will continue to rise around Scotland’s coast. By 2080, under a ‘low global emissions scenario’, sea levels in Edinburgh are projected to be around 19cm higher. Under a ‘high global emission scenario’, this is projected to increase by around 38cm.

Read more, here, on the Adaptation Scotland website.

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